This week brought caution signals that put the U.S. economy under pressure heading into 2025: the IMF’s warning about rising economic tensions, the increase in corporate bankruptcies to the highest level in 15 years, and the impact of the federal government shutdown lasting 43 days. Although the outlook appears complex and many households feel the budget squeeze, these events also offer a clear opportunity: strengthening the habit of automated investing as a defensive shield and a growth engine.
Here we break down the key stories, what they mean for you, and how to maintain a disciplined plan without chasing the “perfect moment.”
IMF signals and bankruptcy rebound: the pressure increases
What happened:
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The IMF warned that “tensions are beginning to increase” in the U.S. economy, with signs of a slowdown in domestic demand and a labor market losing strength, according to Reuters.
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Corporate bankruptcies totaled 655 through October, just 32 away from matching all of 2024, marking the fastest pace in 15 years, according to Reuters.
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October recorded 68 bankruptcies and August 76, the highest monthly numbers since 2020.
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The context is further complicated by the recent 43-day government shutdown (October 1 to November 12), the longest in history, documented by Wikipedia.
Context:
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The shutdown subtracted between 1.0 and 2.0 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP growth, according to the CBO.
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In bankruptcies, the industrial sectors (98 cases) and consumer discretionary (80) lead insolvencies.
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The Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, according to the Federal Reserve, but Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) stated that monetary policy must remain “somewhat restrictive,” according to MarketWatch.
Takeaway:
In uncertain moments, automating your contributions helps you capture average prices without depending on timing.
Corporate bankruptcies: highest in 15 years
Between January and October, 655 companies filed for bankruptcy — only 32 fewer than all of 2024 (Reuters). August marked 76 insolvencies and October 68. Industrials (98) and consumer discretionary (80) lead the most affected sectors.
Takeaway:
When more negative headlines appear, keeping your automatic contributions active becomes even more important.
43-day federal shutdown: GDP impact and data void
The shutdown delayed key data, increased uncertainty, and cut between 1.0 and 2.0 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth, according to the CBO. During the shutdown, around 42 million SNAP beneficiaries faced delays or uncertainty (Reuters).
The IMF also warned about a “data void” that makes reading the economy more difficult (Reuters).
Takeaway:
In periods with fewer data and more noise, trust your process: automate, review on a schedule, and avoid impulsive decisions.
Recent Trump proposals: US$2,000 checks and 50-year mortgages
Alongside the economic events, Trump’s proposal for US$2,000 checks funded by tariffs and the idea of allowing 50-year mortgages also gained attention this week, explained in detail by Yahoo News.
US$2,000 checks funded by tariffs
Trump proposes giving US$2,000 per person, funded by tariff revenue, according to ABC News / Al Jazeera.
But there are issues:
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Tariffs would raise approximately US$200–300 billion, but the checks would cost around US$600 billion.
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It would require congressional approval.
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It implies more debt or spending cuts.
50-year mortgages
The proposal also includes allowing 50-year mortgages to reduce the monthly payment, according to EFE.
However:
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The monthly reduction would be relatively small.
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The total interest cost would rise significantly.
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It would require modifying Dodd-Frank regulations (AP News).
Learn more about this topic here: 50-Year Mortgages: What They Mean for You
Takeaway:
They are proposals, not current policies. Do not base your financial strategy on ideas that may never be implemented. Focus on what you can control: your budget, your automatic contributions, and your planning.
Other financial news of the week
Labor market cools: ~30,000 jobs/month
Non-farm payrolls averaged 29,000–30,000 jobs in the three months through August, compared with ~82,000 in the same period in 2024, according to Reuters.
Probability of a December rate cut falls to ~50%
Rate futures show a probability near 50% for a December cut, down from 90–95% weeks earlier (CME FedWatch Tool).
Inflation remains the focus
The Fed’s stance remains “somewhat restrictive” to ensure inflation declines sustainably, MarketWatch explained.
Industrials and consumer discretionary lead bankruptcies
According to S&P Global, industrials (98) and consumer discretionary (80) accumulate the highest number of insolvencies, Reuters reported.
August marked 76 bankruptcies, the highest month since 2020
August registered 76 bankruptcies and October 68, according to Reuters.
Slower projected growth: ~1.9% in 2025 and ~1.8% in 2026
Expected growth hovers around 2% annually, according to recent CBO projections.
Delayed data complicates reading the cycle
The IMF warned that the lack of data after the shutdown makes it harder to read the economic cycle, Reuters reported.
Finhabits actions of the week
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Automate your periodic contributions.
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Review your plan every quarter.
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Reduce high-interest or variable-rate debt.
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Disclaimer:
This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. It does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Consider your financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance before making investment
Sources
- Reuters – IMF sees signs of US economic strain but lack of data due to shutdown clouds picture
- Reuters – US corporate bankruptcies set to hit 15-year high amid credit jitters, S&P data shows
- Wikipedia – 2025 United States federal government shutdown
- CBO – Impact of government shutdown (Report)
- Federal Reserve – Monetary policy statement, Oct 29 2025
- MarketWatch – The U.S. official who is most serious about fighting inflation is in Cleveland
- Reuters – End of U.S. government shutdown won’t lift economic fog
- Reuters – U.S. unemployment rate rounds up to 4.4% in October, Chicago Fed estimates
- CME Group – FedWatch Tool (probability of Fed’s actions)
- ABC News – Trump’s promise of US$2,000 tariff dividend payments
- Al Jazeera – White House explores US$2,000 tariff “dividend” budget; experts are sceptical
- EFE – Trump propone hipotecas a 50 años para incentivar el mercado de la vivienda (EE.UU.)
- AP News – U.S. home-prices/50-year-mortgage analysis (Trump proposal)
- Yahoo News (es-US) – ¿Cheques de US$2,000 por los aranceles? ¿Hipotecas a 50 años? Las últimas propuestas de Trump explicadas
Disclaimer
This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a personalized investment recommendation. All investments carry risks, including the possible loss of capital. Before making financial decisions, consider consulting a qualified professional.
