Should You Buy the SpaceX IPO on Day One? What the Evidence Says

You’re watching SpaceX trade live on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. You’re seeing the headlines — $1.75 trillion valuation, $75 billion raised, the largest IPO in history. You’re seeing the price jump from a $135 IPO to a $150 open to an intraday high of $168.75. And somewhere in your gut, a voice is saying: if I don’t buy today, I miss this forever. Breathe. We know you’re already doing a lot with your money — and before you move a single chip out of pressure, it’s worth seeing what the evidence actually says.

Short answer: historically, buying an IPO at the first-day close and holding it for three to five years has, on average, returned less than investing in already-established comparable companies. Your monthly discipline inside a diversified portfolio, in many cases, positions you better than chasing the debut.

The essentials in 30 seconds

• SpaceX did IPO today (June 12, 2026) on Nasdaq under SPCX, priced at $135, opening at $150, with an intraday high of $168.75 and a peak market cap near $2.21 trillion.
• The IPO was oversubscribed by more than 400% — meaning most retail investors who tried to buy at $135 didn’t get an allocation and are now paying a premium on the open market.
• The first day of an IPO is historically very volatile. The SEC explicitly warns about this and decades of academic research back it up.
• S&P 500 index funds can capture new large companies when they meet the index’s criteria, depending on the index’s rules and the fund’s mandate — that’s how Tesla, Meta and others entered.
• FOMO is not a strategy. It’s an emotion worth recognizing before you move money.

This article isn’t here to convince you to invest in an IPO or to avoid one. It’s here so you understand how the game works, what the history shows, and why a disciplined investor in diversified funds is already better positioned than they realize.

What’s actually happening with SpaceX right now?

Let’s get the facts on the table, because the noise on X and TikTok is moving faster than the actual data. As of today, June 12, 2026:

• Ticker: SPCX, on Nasdaq.
• IPO price: $135 per share, for approximately 556.6 million shares.
• Capital raised: roughly $75 billion — the largest IPO on record, according to Reuters and NPR.
• IPO valuation: approximately $1.75 trillion.
• First trade: opened at $150, hit an intraday high of $168.75, with the market cap touching ~$2.21 trillion at the peak.
• Demand vs. supply: the deal was oversubscribed by more than 400%, meaning most retail orders at $135 went unfilled or only partly filled.
• SEC filing: SpaceX confidentially filed its registration on April 1, 2026; the roadshow launched on June 4.
• First analyst note: CFRA initiated coverage today with a Sell rating and a price target of $115 — below the IPO price itself.

That last detail matters. A major Wall Street research firm is telling clients on day one that the fundamentals don’t support the price retail is paying. That’s not a prediction either way — it’s a reminder that the loudest voice on the day of an IPO is rarely the most informed one. If this is your first time thinking seriously about the stock market, it’s worth understanding how the stock market works step by step before deciding what to do with a specific case like SPCX.

What does the evidence say about buying IPOs on day one?

This is the uncomfortable but important part. Professor Jay Ritter at the University of Florida has spent decades studying IPO performance in the United States. His public research on IPO data finds a consistent pattern:

On average, people who buy an IPO at the first-day closing price and hold for three to five years earn lower returns than people who invest in already-established comparable companies. The first day feels like winning the lottery, but the full movie, on average, doesn’t follow that emotion.

The SEC’s IPO investor bulletin reinforces the same idea: IPO shares can be hard to obtain at the offering price, the first day tends to bring large price swings, and subsequent performance is mixed.

That doesn’t mean no IPO goes up. It means that, historically, chasing IPOs as a strategy has not often beaten a diversified, disciplined portfolio. There are brilliant exceptions — but spotting them in advance is very different from seeing them in the rearview mirror.

How can index funds give you exposure to future winners?

Here’s the part that changes the conversation. When a company goes public and, over time, meets the S&P 500 inclusion criteria — sufficient market cap, positive earnings in its most recent quarters, adequate liquidity, and the majority of shares available to the public — it can enter the index. And when it enters, investors in S&P 500 index funds can become partial owners of that company automatically, depending on the index’s rules and the fund’s mandate.

Real examples:

• Tesla entered the S&P 500 in December 2020 — nearly a decade after its 2010 IPO.
• Meta (Facebook), Google and Amazon all went through similar processes in their time.
• SpaceX just went public today. Whether it eventually meets the index’s criteria — given its current losses and Elon Musk’s concentrated voting control — is an open question. If it does, a similar path is possible.

Put differently: the index investor doesn’t need to guess which company is “the next Tesla.” The system can include it when that company demonstrates it deserves to be there, depending on the index’s rules and the fund’s mandate.

The quiet advantage of the disciplined investor

If you start with $500 and add between $50 and $100 a month to a diversified portfolio, in many cases you can build exposure to hundreds of companies at the same time — including the future big winners, as they become eligible for the index. This is a hypothetical example for illustrative purposes. Actual results may vary. It assumes a constant rate of return, which is not guaranteed.

The key difference isn’t how much you start with. It’s that you don’t stop. Real talk: if nothing changes, nothing changes. But the change doesn’t come from chasing the next IPO. It shows up in the habit — the monthly deposit that goes in rain or shine, while the rest of the world is busy speculating.

What do I do with the SpaceX FOMO right now?

Three things to take with you:

1. FOMO is an emotion, not a strategy. The first day of an IPO is the moment with the least clear information and the most emotional noise. The SEC and decades of research agree on that. Today’s price action — $135 to $150 to $168.75 to a fresh analyst Sell rating at $115 — is exactly the pattern they describe.
2. You don’t have to buy SPCX directly to participate in its potential future growth. If SpaceX eventually meets S&P 500 inclusion criteria, a diversified portfolio could incorporate it, depending on the index’s rules and the fund’s mandate.
3. Your edge is already in motion. The investor who contributes $50–$100 a month consistently is building something the day-one speculator rarely achieves: time in the market, not timing of the market.

You can explore how Finhabits’ diversified portfolios work when you’re ready.

This is Step 1 — Take Control

You’re in the take-control phase: understanding the terrain before you move money. If you want to know more, seeing how all of this translates into concrete action is a good starting point.

Frequently asked questions about the SpaceX IPO

Did SpaceX really IPO?

Yes. SpaceX priced its IPO on June 11, 2026 at $135 per share and began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, raising approximately $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history. SpaceX confidentially filed its registration with the SEC on April 1, 2026, and the roadshow launched on June 4, 2026.

Why is the first day of an IPO often risky?

The SEC notes that IPO shares can be difficult to obtain at the initial offering price, the first day often sees strong price moves, and subsequent performance is mixed. Academic research backs that pattern over decades.

Can I get SpaceX through an index fund today?

Not on day one. The S&P 500 has specific inclusion criteria — sufficient market cap, positive earnings, liquidity, and the majority of shares available to the public. If and when SpaceX meets those criteria over time, S&P 500 index funds could incorporate it, depending on the index’s rules and the fund’s mandate. This is how Tesla, Meta and others entered the index in past cycles.

How much do I need to start investing in a diversified way?

In many cases, you can start with small amounts, depending on the account type and the platform. What carries the most weight over time is consistency, not the starting amount.

What should I do if I feel a lot of FOMO over an IPO?

Recognize it as an emotion, not a strategy. Go back to your monthly contribution plan and remember that time in the market, with a diversified portfolio, has historically tended to beat chasing debuts.